Economic
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Following a surge by 16.6% yoy in 2007, consumer inflation accelerated further during the first three months of the year and reached a seven-and-a-half-year high of 26.2% yoy in March 2008. The Note examines the reasons of the current price rise in the country and reviews ongoing government efforts to maintain price stability.
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Well – functioning financial industry ensures efficient mobilization and allocation of resources to domestic investments that further economic growth. In the financial industry leasing is an important sector that enhances growth in the real sector of the economy and support renovation of the productive assets. According to the European Federation of Leasing Company Associations leasing represents one-eighth of the world’s annual equipment financing requirements. Leasing sector in Ukraine is still immature as compared to other countries despite its explosive growth in the past two years. In developing countries with high GDP growth rate, leasing accounts for 10 – 15 % of investments in capital assets while for Ukraine it is only 1.5%. Taking into account that average depreciation of fixed assets in the economy is 50%, it is important to promote the growth in this sector. The leasing sector review targets issues that are important to the leasing sector development in Ukraine
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Ukraine has experienced a surge of “raidering” attacks or illegal takeovers of corporate assets. Such attacks are detrimental to the image of Ukraine among international investors and deteriorate the investment climate in the country. The sustained foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow requires an effective mechanism for property rights protection. While a hostile takeover is not unusual or illegal in Western business practice, in Ukraine many takeovers have turned into overt illegal seizures of corporate assets with gross violations of the rights of shareholders. In this regard, it is critical to improve the government regulations that would incorporate best practices in protecting the rights of shareholders. The policy paper on hostile takeovers reviews the current takeover practices, government efforts in curbing property rights violations as well as public policy recommendations.
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2006
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Impact of Gas Price Increase on the Economy of Ukraine in 2007 (November 2006)
Since the beginning of 2007, the price for imported gas to Ukraine will increase by 37% to $130 per 1000 m3. Considering that the Ukrainian economy is highly energy-intensive and thus vulnerable to gas price changes, and that this increase will be the second gas price shock in two years, the analysis estimates its impact on GDP growth, foreign trade and the current account, consolidated fiscal budget, inflation and the exchange rate in 2007.
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Economic Reforms in Ukraine (August 2006)
Without transforming the way government agencies presently work, it is likely that numerous obstacles for investing to Ukraine will be removed very slowly. Implementing a comprehensive public administration reform should be a top priority in agenda of the Ukrainian government. Along with the comprehensive public administration reform, this paper examines a number of other key measures that can substantially improve the investment climate in the country.
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Ukraine — Impact of Gas Price Increase (January 2006)
Our analysis of the impact of the recent gas price increases on the Ukrainian economy indicates that, though significant, it will not be as damaging as initially projected by different experts.
In particular:
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From 2000 to 2004, Ukraine achieved excellent macroeconomic performance. Although economic growth and inflation were less satisfactory in 2005, the overall economic performance of Ukraine since 2000 provides a sound basis for further economic and social development. In fact, there is now a unique opportunity for the implementation of structural reforms vital to the country's economic growth.
This report is aimed at analyzing the recent economic history of Ukraine and future prospects for the economy in light of the recent political developments. The latter gave reason to expect better transparency and cohesiveness of the political decision making process. It is also anticipated that the new President and its government will maintain wise fiscal and monetary policy and accelerate implementation of needed structural reforms that will pave the way towards creation of effective public administration, a favorable business climate, fair support for socially vulnerable groups and a solid international reputation.
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2005
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Ukraine — Current Economic Situation and Proposed Measures to Revive Investments and Growth (September 2005)
Ukraine needs to increase the level of investments, both domestic and foreign, not only to revive economic growth, but also to diversify its production and exports and reduce energy intensity of domestic products, which is currently one of the highest in the world. In order to build sufficient private sector confidence to revive investments, the government will need to give stronger signals that it is addressing the main concerns of the private sector: that is, the concern that the Ukrainian Government still retains many of the characteristics of Soviet public institutions overloading the private sector with heavy and unpredictable demands and requirements, including heavy interventions in the workings of the market.
The reform of public administration is the key reform that is needed to facilitate liberalization and deregulation of business activities in a free and competitive market. This reform is also needed to make possible the implementation of all other economic reforms. In fact, the lack of capacity of public institutions to actually implement economic reforms is one of the main reasons why progress in reforms has been slow.
We realize, however, that comprehensive public administration reform can not be carried out in the short term. But some initial actions in this area are possible and are important to send a clear message to business that the public administration will be improved. These measures plus a short set of other quick measures would help in reversing the current negative perception about the government.
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Ukraine must implement expeditiously urgent economic reforms to accelerate economic growth and improve the quality of life of its population. For this purpose, Ukraine needs to increase the level of investments, both domestic and foreign. Increasing the level of foreign direct investments is also important for Ukraine not only to revive economic growth, but because it may be a key financing source for possible fiscal deficits in the near future.
We propose the economic reforms needed to accelerate investments, both domestic and foreign. These measures are divided into short term (with quick payout) and long term (needed to ensure sustainable investment inflow and economic growth in the future). All of the measures listed in the Report are grouped in the order of the current priorities facing Ukraine.
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Privatization has played a key role in improving the welfare of Ukrainian people. Wages have increased, debts have been reduced, communities now receive more money from successful companies, and more small and medium sized companies have sprung up to support larger privatized companies. Overall, privatized companies have enjoyed growing support from most regional or city leaders as taxable income has increased and more people have become employed. The first two stages of privatization were not carried out transparently enough, and too much wealth was concentrated in too few owners. We believe these events limited the full positive effect that privatization could have brought. However, the most recent phase of privatization has been better at providing a more transparent form of transaction. Such a trend must continue.
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The reform of public administration is the key reform that is needed to facilitate and make possible the implementation of all other economic and social reforms needed in the country. If well done, this reform will put the country on a different path, on an accelerated course to faster development and growth. Without it, implementation of economic reforms will continue to suffer. The objective of public administration reform should be to redefine the role of the government to support the private sector, secure the provision of sound and efficient government services without corruption, and effectively implement economic measures and reforms to deal with emerging economic problems.
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Ukraine: Investment Promotion Activities (May 2005)
It is proposed that a smaller taskforce be established under the umbrella of the Investment Council: it would be called the International Private Capital Task Force (IPCTF). This new IPCTF would be formed principally by the heads of the local representative offices of those foreign companies and international agencies that are quite active in Ukraine. It would also include presidents of companies residing abroad if they can make the commitment to visit Kiev at least on a quarterly basis as needed. It is proposed that the IPCTF also acts as the Advisory Board for the Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) that the government intends to establish. This IPA would have adequate staffing to implement the recommendations of the IPCTF. IPA would coordinate whatever work needs to be carried out by other government agencies. In other words, IPA would act as the executing agency and secretariat of the Investment Council and the IPCTF.
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The Ukraine's 2005-fiscal budget deficits are a concern to foreign and domestic investors working in the country. Based on the depth in analysis this paper concludes that the deficit for 2005 is likely to be around 3.5%-4% of GDP, significantly exceeding the 1.6% of GDP envisaged by the government.
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Proposed Reform Agenda for Ukraine; The First Twelve Months (January 2005)
This paper presents the views of SigmaBleyzer. The Bleyzer Foundation on the key structural reforms needed in Ukraine to build private sector confidence, improve Ukraine's business climate and sustain economic growth.
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This note addresses the question of how best to improve the management of these "residual" state enterprises that are unlikely to be privatized in the near future, or that might find their way back into the state portfolio for at least some time.
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2004
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The new European Union frontier countries (NEF countries) comprise a region that is truly emerging into a market economy quickly. It includes Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Ukraine, Albania, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina. These countries should be of particular interests to financial institutions and investors in Europe for the following reasons:
In attempt to define the relationship between the flows of foreign direct investments (FDI) to a country and the attractiveness of a country’s investment climate, SigmaBleyzer and The Bleyzer Foundation has embarked on a comprehensive research effort. It identified the most important measures that a government can take to improve the business environment of a country and attract foreign direct investments. The report presents analysis and conclusions regarding the attractiveness of NEF countries’ investment climate based on the nine key investment drivers.
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Private Sector Role in Accelerating Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries (June 2004)
The SigmaBleyzer Group believes that international private capital could play a more important role in the world if it were to not just go into countries with sound policies, but actually lead less advanced countries to carry out necessary economic reforms to improve their business environments. This hybrid approach for the private sector – taking greater advantage of investment opportunities in a larger group of developing countries and inducing economic reforms to improve business environments – will be not only more beneficial to the developing world, but it would also benefit the international community at large.
A more active engagement by the private sector under this hybrid strategy would have the dual purpose of accelerating economic growth in emerging market countries and providing superior returns to private equity investments in these countries. This paper discusses the rationale for a more active engagement of the private sector on inducing economic reforms to improve business environments of countries with emerging markets, and suggests an approach to achieve this objective. |
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In late 1980s–early 1990s, Ireland experienced exceptionally high rates of economic growth, greatly surpassing those in other European countries. Starting in 1990, the Irish economy grew by an average of 6% annually for ten years. Over the last few years, Ireland has become one of the most attractive countries for foreign investment. Ireland's economic success was determined by a number of factors, from sound government policies to independent favorable preconditions for growth. The present Briefing Note purports to determine the key factors of the Irish "economic miracle". The first section of the Note presents an analysis of macroeconomic and structural transformations in Ireland prior to and after 1987, which is considered a turning point in the country's economic history. The sections that follow cover government policies in various sectors of economic activity aimed at creating favorable conditions for Ireland's economic development. The final section presents conclusions and lessons to be learnt from the Irish experience of economic development.
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International Official Aid: Flows and Impact (April 2004)
International capital flows play an increasingly important role in promoting economic development and growth in developing countries. In this report we analyze the overall trends in official aid flows to developing countries, the distribution of these funds across the developing world as well as their impact on the recipient countries' economies, with the aim of assessing the effectiveness of official development aid. The problem with aid is that it is misallocated because it is used not to promote economic growth but to support politically oriented goals. These goals, however, are not sustainable per se. Our empirical analysis shows that aid has not had any significant impact on economic growth. The impact of aid on basic indicators of human development was also insignificant, suggesting that aid does not benefit the poor.
This report concludes that the bulk of foreign aid should be directed to support the creation and growth of a healthy and competitive private sector. Only efficient interaction of aid and private flows can produce a high quality stream of development financing that fosters economic growth and, consequently, reduces poverty. |
2003
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What is Wrong with Market Oriented Policies? (June 2003)
Many critics have argued that market based policies have been responsible for the financial crises faced by several developing countries over the last few years. As a result of these criticisms, questions have been raised about the rationale for developing countries to follow these market based policies. The Bleyzer Foundation reviewed the causes of recent financial crises experienced by a number of developing countries to examine whether market based policies could be blamed for them. This note reviews recent crises, including the Mexico crisis of 1994 –95, the East Asian crisis of 1997, and the Russian crisis of 1998. The review concluded that in fact the crises were caused by the incomplete and inadequate implementation by governments of consistent and comprehensive free market policies, the failures of these governments to address key fundamental issues, such as fiscal deficits, currency overvaluation, poor banking supervision and inadequate government interventions.
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The Argentinean Crisis (June 2003)
The 2001 Argentinean crisis has been considered by many as an example of the failure of market based economic policies that resulted in the current economic hardships and rising poverty in this country.
This note reviews the economic developments of this country between 1991 and 2000 and shows that Argentina's most recent failure can be explained by halfhearted and inconsistent economic reforms that prevented the country from reaching desirable economic and social outcomes. An examination of the causes of the crisis could reduce the risk of future policy mistakes and possible financial crisis in other developing and transition economies.
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Ukrainian Fiscal Budget Situation (July 2003)
As previous years indicate, the biggest problem with Ukraine's fiscal budget is not its adoption, but its execution. Revenues often fall short of the planned numbers, and the government is therefore required to cut expenditures accordingly to keep the budget balanced.
This note analyses the adequacy of 2003 fiscal budget, covering the issues of fiscal revenues, fiscal expenditures, current fiscal performance, the minimum salary, privatization proceeds, publicly guaranteed debt, VAT reimbursement, and financing of the fiscal deficit. The authors suggest a set of measures to improve fiscal performance in Ukraine and make the budget more adequate.
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This report reviews the international experience of operation of investment promotion agencies (IPAs) and their organizational structures in order to assess what makes these agencies effective in promoting a country for foreign investments. Based on the results of analytical surveys and research performed by international organizations (particularly the Foreign Investment Advisory Service (FIAS) of the World Bank/IFC and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)), and our own assessments of IPA operations in the CEE region, the authors define the best practices in the promotion of foreign investment.
The conclusions made as a result can be instrumental and have useful implications for the development of an investment promotion strategy for Ukraine. |
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The review analyses the main reasons for discontent and frustration in the region.
The policies outlined in Bleyzer Foundation economic policy framework for the creation of a favorable business environment for domestic and international investments, would vary among the various countries in the Middle East, since they do have fundamental differences, but in all these countries a fundamental principle should be established. This principle is that the international private sector should be engaged at the early development stages. International Private Sector must play a much more active role not only in investing in selected attractive areas, but by actively advocating the business environment changes they expect to see in the countries of the Middle East to attract increased flows of FDI in all sectors of economy. This effort could be the most important contribution that the West could make to improve the quality of life of the people and neutralize those groups that want to promote terrorism.
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2002
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The Bleyzer Initiative book (August 2002)
"The Bleyzer Initiative" is a plan to help developing countries become stable, developed market economies. It began as an action plan to accelerate the completion of the transition from centrally planned economies to market economies by the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU). But the Bleyzer Initiative can and should be applied to any developing nation or transition economy in the World.
The audiences for The Bleyzer Initiative are government leaders of developed countries, the transition economy countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the developing countries, thought leaders and economists, business leaders and the public at large. We believe that the problems that exist in the world today call for decisive, hands-on action by both developed and developing nations. The Bleyzer Initiative is our approach to solving one of the most critical problems of the early 21st century —how to improve global security in the new age of assured interdependence.
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The Case of Poland (August 2002)
This note reviews the history of reforms in Poland as well as the current situation.
Many observers are now blaming economic liberalization and reforms as the cause of the current malaise. However, Poland is not a case that shows that economic reforms are ineffective. In fact, Poland is a case that validates the importance of sound measures as described in the IPCTF Economic Policy Framework. Poland is a good example of what can happen to a country when it fails to address its economic issues in a timely manner.
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In this report the author shares the experience of SigmaBleyzer in doing research aimed at defining the drivers necessary to accelerate the flow of investments in the transition economies.
The company has been able to develop the methodology and tools that are needed by the governments of transition economies and other developing countries to obtain the capital necessary to finance the transition to market economy.
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2001
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IPCTF Study (April 2001)
In 2000, after consultations with the Ukrainian government, SigmaBleyzer launched the International Private Capital Task Force (IPCTF). Members of the Steering Committee included representatives from multinational corporations, NGO's, and international agencies, as well as government officials. The goal of the task force was to benchmark Ukraine against other developing economies and recommend government policy actions that Ukraine should undertake to increase and sustain its pace of economic growth.
The study was conducted by a team of SigmaBleyzer professionals and the Thunderbird Corporate Consulting Group with substantial and valuable input incorporated from representatives of foreign businesses as well as bi-lateral and multi-lateral organizations in Ukraine. The study produced an Action Plan that will stimulate investment and allow Ukraine to realize its potential.
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